00:00
Peter Dunn
It's. Hey, everybody. The show is starting. This is the new theme song, boop. Hi, Dame. I like the boop I'm I don't know why I don't play the show music and the animation to start the show anymore. I I mean, it takes 5 seconds to do, but it just seems like the biggest inconvenience of my life, so I just sing a song.
00:24
Damian Dunn
I think it has more to do with the fact that you couldn't do it consistently or do it right consistently.
00:29
Peter Dunn
Do you remember the Ukulele Pete the Planner show theme?
00:33
Damian Dunn
Yes, I do.
00:35
Peter Dunn
All right, let's see if I can find it because I loved it. Okay, I got to see if we can find it because it's really good. Oh, hi, Danza. Yeah, it's suit and tie edition here today on the Pete the Planner Show, everybody.
00:48
Damian Dunn
For 50% of us.
00:50
Peter Dunn
Yeah, for me. Okay. I can't wait to find it.
00:55
Damian Dunn
That was a fiverr project, wasn't it?
00:57
Peter Dunn
Yeah, it's a five. Oh, here it is. All right, we're going to play it. I liked this, and literally no one else in our organization cared for this or any listener. My wife hated it. My daughter thought it was stupid. It really ended up not being good, but here we go. Oh, I'm so excited. Okay, you ready? Hopefully you can hear this. When you've only so much income and so many bills and your problems are so bad they are vanquishing your thrills listen up close there's a place that you can go it's a comfort and the laughs abduct just the idea that I paid $5 to a Korean woman to write me a song on a ukulele for our syndicated radio show Just I like that.
01:46
Damian Dunn
You got your money's worth.
01:47
Peter Dunn
I don't know. I liked it. I mean, that's really good, right? Yeah. I gave her a tip, though. It was $5, but I don't know the conversion rate. I ended up paying her $18.0.19 for that.
02:00
Damian Dunn
Okay.
02:01
Peter Dunn
Yeah, it's pretty good. Dame, here's what's on the show this week investment retirement episode. Sometimes we do that, sometimes we don't. With about 50 days left in the year, we're going to see how close our predictions are from the market to being right. One of us is very right on an individual pick, and the other one's very right as it relates to the market as a whole. Let's see if those predictions hold. We're going to talk about that. We also are going to dig deep into the 4% rule again, because there was another article that said the number stinks again, but from my memory, it keeps going down again. So we'll talk about that, and then in 2022, like in every new year, the IRS changes guidelines on contribution limits, so I want to talk about that. I'm always curious as to how they come up with the numbers of what the limits are, and so we're going to talk about that as well.
02:54
Peter Dunn
D*** anything we get off your chest. You have a good week. Everything going well in your life?
02:57
Damian Dunn
Everything's going great, kids. The Aqua Duns had a great weekend of swim last weekend, which, of course, I always say, a great weekend for me of swimming is not drowning. But they choose to win events, so they did a great job last weekend.
03:10
Peter Dunn
Dame, I have a problem I want to share with you right now. I'm not really on social media much anymore, but I do spend a lot of time on YouTube, and I find myself getting caught in all sorts of cosmic rabbit holes of content. And I need to share with you right now the top videos that I'm watching that has my wife incredibly concerned.
03:38
Damian Dunn
Okay. I'll share one of mine as well.
03:40
Peter Dunn
When you're finished, I will note this. My wife walked by the other day, and I was watching a video, and she was very upset by what I was watching. And she acted as though I was watching some sort of adult content, when in fact, I was just watching a man in his garage recobble a pair of shoes. She said that is weird. And she's concerned about me as a person as to what I'm dealing with these days. I'm obsessed with polishing and recobbling of shoes right now. I don't know why. I don't know if like a restoration, a renaissance of sort, but that's one of the channels I'm addicted to right now, are refinishing shoes. You hit me with one of yours.
04:23
Damian Dunn
Yeah, I agree. Every once in a while, I'll start watching cobbling of shoes, and I think it's because there's a process, a start, a beginning and an end, and you can see the work and the fruit of your labor, and the transformations are amazing. They're great. And by the way, I think you save your adult content for plane flights. By the way, I don't know how this got put into my feed, but I have found myself watching a couple of guys trim hooves on cows.
04:59
Peter Dunn
I've seen that, and it grosses me out. I can't watch it.
05:02
Damian Dunn
Yeah, they patch them up and they make them healthy, and they put little blocks on them, and it's amazing. They're little ten minute videos, and I feel I knew nothing about it to start. And, like, two minutes into a video now, I can say, like, that's going to need a block and just move on. I'm almost an expert.
05:22
Peter Dunn
All right, let's go tit for tat on weird videos that we watch on YouTube next. For me, and this is sort of a classic, I watch high end cleaning companies clean very soiled rugs.
05:39
Damian Dunn
Okay. Again, it's a process thing. You start off with something that is absolutely destroyed, and you put a little bit of time and effort and a little bit of know how and gumption knowledge.
05:52
Peter Dunn
Gumption.
05:53
Damian Dunn
A lot of steam, a lot of chemicals sometimes. Yeah. And they come out and just bright and vibrant and you feel good about yourself.
06:01
Peter Dunn
I do watch a lot of cocktail making videos. There's this guy named Anders Erickson. He's a bartender in Chicago, and he's got this quirky little channel anders Ericsson that I enjoy. All right, let's move on with the show. I told you before the show started, Dame, I have no time for this. Yes, and you said, that's probably really endearing to our audience. Every week you tell them that you have no time for them. And I said, I think they like it, so play a little hard to get. I need to go pay my mortgage in person, so I got to go. You know what I mean?
06:29
Damian Dunn
Everything is okay now. They all understand.
06:31
Peter Dunn
All right, in three, two, one. This week on The Pete the Planner Show, we answer your money questions. You email us, askpete@petetheplanner.com that's, askpete@petetheplanner.com, and occasionally we'll answer those questions. You email us, askpeet@petetheplanner.com that's, askpete@petetheplanner.com, and occasionally we'll answer those questions. When I say we, I mean me and Mr. Dunn. Damien Dunn, vice President of Advice at Your Moneyline and hey Money. Hello. Dame.
06:55
Damian Dunn
Hello, Pete.
06:56
Peter Dunn
Every once in a while, when I describe you in a business setting, I make note that we are not related, despite the fact that we share a look, we share a surname, and people are either amused by it or don't believe me. This week, I share that information. And a person chuckled. They said, that's great, and I was amused by that.
07:14
Damian Dunn
Well, I appreciate that people enjoy the fact that we could be related, maybe even should be related, but we certainly are not.
07:22
Peter Dunn
Dame this week on the show, it's a retirement investment episode for no other reason, because this is what's interested me. This week. There was an article we're going to talk about today about how the 4% rule is no longer a good rule. We'll give you some context around that here. Shortly we're going to do a 50 day left in the year market prediction review.
07:44
Speaker 3
50 days left in the year market prediction review.
07:49
Peter Dunn
And then we are going to talk about the IRS contribution limits and various retirement and health savings vehicles that they've set for 2022. And if you're thinking to yourself, dame wow, that's incredibly interesting. It's not, but we will make it that way because that's how the show works. Dame I'm going to get co host pick. You tell me of those three segments I just gave you. I want you to be a choose Your Own adventure with Pete. Which segment would you like to start with?
08:15
Damian Dunn
4%, please.
08:17
Peter Dunn
4% Rule. Dame one of the weird things about saving money into retirement plan for 45 years is that you find yourself perpetually in this what we call the accumulation phase. You're just putting money away. You're putting money away, and you don't really think about the distribution phase of, like, how do you get the money out? And if you're doing that consistently. It's hard to stay focused. It's hard to figure out why exactly you're doing it. So years ago someone came up with this idea that you should calculate how much income your nest egg will generate by multiplying your nest egg by 4%. And if you do that will tell you how much income on annual basis you can safely withdraw from your nest egg without the fear of running out of money. Do you feel like I described that in a reasonable way?
09:16
Damian Dunn
Yeah. The thought being that the gains on average in your portfolio are going to greatly increase higher than the 4%. And so 4% should be safe, give you a nice little cushion with some inflation and you'll be able to keep that nest egg safe and secure and you'll have plenty of money until you move on to post retirement.
09:38
Peter Dunn
Every few years people like to dig in to see how valid is the 4% rule. And it was always meant as a broad stroke rule of thumb. It was never meant to set all of your financial planning around it. But that being said, lots of people have set their financial planning around that. A few years ago I saw it reduced down to 3.8% and this past week Morningstar published a paper suggesting the new accurate withdrawal rate really should be 3.3%. So Dane, we're going to do something that I love to do here on the show. We do it all the time and that is Math on the radio. Yay. I've had a lot of caffeine today.
10:21
Damian Dunn
Can you tell you're doing well?
10:25
Peter Dunn
Okay, so how big of a nest egg would you like? Because we're just making things up here.
10:30
Damian Dunn
Let's go with do you want round numbers or do you want some weird number?
10:33
Peter Dunn
Well, I don't care. I always like to use 500,000 because I find it to be approachable for a lot of people, much more so than a million?
10:44
Damian Dunn
I was going to say a million but okay, let's go a 500,000.
10:47
Peter Dunn
Well, not everyone's a big baller like you Dame. Okay, $500,000. I don't need the calculator for this part. But if you had a $500,000 nest egg at retirement and you followed the rule of thumb, what you're suggesting, or the rule of four, which is a rule of thumb, you would suggest that you receive $20,000 a year of income off of your nest egg. And you can perpetually do that without the fear of running out of money. Right Dame?
11:18
Damian Dunn
Correct.
11:19
Peter Dunn
Now this takes into account historical returns and it sort of projects them forward and it says even if you have a major market event, a bear market, a crash, whatever, you should still be okay with that rule of 4%. That was the old way of thinking. Now the number is much different. Instead of $20,000 we're talking about $16,500 is what is suggested to take off of a $500,000 nest egg. And I want to start here with this dame. When you tell someone that has a half a million dollars, and when they say it like, hey, I got a half a million bucks with that positive tone, and then you tell them that will reasonably send them $1,375 a month, that's shocking.
12:08
Damian Dunn
Yeah. There's going to be some disbelief, possibly maybe a big kick to the ego as well, thinking that you had done a pretty reasonable job preparing for retirement. And you find out that if you want to make sure that money sticks around, you're not going to be able to take very much of it. In reality, I think most of us understand, hey, if you want that money to stick around, spend less of it, and it'll last longer. But that's a pretty small number, especially if we're talking about money that's coming out of an IRA or 401K.
12:40
Peter Dunn
Yeah. I mean, you could argue, and I don't know what the RMDs are when they get back in place here. Are they back in place? RMDs. I know they took a break. Yeah. This is why you're paid to know these things. It's above 3.3%, isn't it?
12:57
Damian Dunn
I'd have to check what the initial RMD is for age 72 now, but I'm not entirely sure, but it's probably in that ballpark.
13:07
Peter Dunn
Back when I used to speak in front of live audiences a lot, I would commonly talk about withdrawal rate or distribution rate. You can call it either. And I would always ask the audience, if you had a half million dollars and it was your nest egg and you needed to generate a stream of income off of that, what do you think you can reasonably generate from a dollar standpoint? And, dame, do you know what the most common answer was off of a half million dollars?
13:30
Damian Dunn
Are you talking monthly or annually?
13:32
Peter Dunn
Annually. Close. Which that's 8%. That's 8%. That's a problem. That is a huge problem on a 30 year retirement in a 60 40 portfolio. 60% stocks, 40% bonds. If you took an 8% withdrawal rate, you have an 8% chance of having any money left at all after 30 years, and that is bad retirement planning.
14:05
Damian Dunn
Well, the problem is you didn't put any of that money in Bitcoin. Pete.
14:08
Peter Dunn
Oh, my gosh. I want to tell you a story that I haven't told you this week because I've been too busy to tell you a really frustrating story, and I definitely cannot tell you this one on the air.
14:19
Damian Dunn
Thanks, everybody.
14:21
Peter Dunn
Yeah. Sorry. Okay, so I think if more people calculated a proper withdrawal rate in conjunction with what their nest egg is at the midpoint of their career, and they said, hey, this is what I'm projected to have, how does this sit with me? I think you'd have people get on their horse a little faster, so to speak, as it relates to contributing money to retirement. Yeah.
14:46
Damian Dunn
If you look at that projection in the midpoint of your retirement or earlier. And then you start to take into account taxes, inflation, lower market returns, which is widely assumed to be in our future, lower market returns. That number gets really small, but the number you have to contribute gets significantly bigger.
15:11
Peter Dunn
That's so true. Right. And the other factor in this, too, is you mentioned taxes making decisions around Roth IRA and Roth 401 KS versus traditional 401 KS and traditional IRAs, of course. Coming up in a moment, we're going to talk more about that, but dame the new number, everybody. The rule of 3.3, as they call it.
15:35
Damian Dunn
Larry Bird rule.
15:37
Peter Dunn
Lovely. All right. All that is next right here on the Pete the Planner show. I'm Pete the Planner. Do you hate them? Who actually sets them because they're a little bit wacky? All that is next right here on the pizza Planner show. I'm pizza planner. This story I have to tell you, I haven't told anyone the story. Oz was part of the story. Brian pinkens.
16:05
Damian Dunn
Hello.
16:05
Peter Dunn
I hope you're still enjoying us here on Facebook live. Good to see you, my friend. D***, it was a nightmare. I can't tell you too much. I will say this. Oh, boy, how do I say this? I want to tell you something as someone who's in front of people live in some capacity, virtual or in an audience. In front of an audience. A lot, a lot. Thousands of times. Honestly, there's two times in my life I've almost lost it and burnt down the whole thing and said, I'm done, stomped off stage or pulled the plug out of my computer. One of them happened this week. I can't tell you anything about it publicly.
16:57
Damian Dunn
So now I'm upset. You didn't tell me about this earlier.
17:02
Peter Dunn
Because it was so upsetting. I can't do it. It's an amazing story. It's an amazing story that everyone on here would love more than candy. You're going to die when I tell you because here's what's going to happen. When we conclude the show, I got to put it in the system so they distribute it to different radio stations. I got to get my car to drive to my bank to pay my mortgage, and I have a meeting after that. I'm going to call you in the car when I'm in the car, be a hands free device, and I'm going to tell you the story and you are going to cackle.
17:35
Damian Dunn
Is this going to pump you up for your afternoon or is it going.
17:39
Peter Dunn
To no, it might bring me down. So I kind of don't want to tell you. You know what, we're having reunion next week where all of our people from all over the country come in town. We spend some time together, maybe have a soda pop or two, maybe I'll tell you the story then.
17:51
Damian Dunn
I can't believe I just story blocked myself.
17:55
Peter Dunn
Brian pinkens my man says the age 72 RMD will be 3.65 with the changes to life expectancy for 2022. There you go. Big pink. He knows. Thanks, man. All right. By the way, and this is strangely specific, Brian, I'm going to take that Tuesday live on Tuesday at Coaches Downtown Mutual. Friend of ours, dame, are you coming with? Are you going to be going home?
18:23
Damian Dunn
Yeah, I need to.
18:24
Peter Dunn
I'm taking the whole team to a hip hop DJ set on Tuesday night. Be there. I was going to say be square, but I am square, so go figure.
18:32
Damian Dunn
Be there and be square.
18:34
Peter Dunn
Yes. Okay, are we ready to go?
18:38
Damian Dunn
You tell me.
18:39
Peter Dunn
Did my screen just shrink?
18:41
Damian Dunn
Is it cold?
18:42
Peter Dunn
Back on the Pete the Planner show suit and tie caffeine edition of the show. Okay, in three what are we doing? Iris contributions. Three, two, one. Back on the Pizza Planner show suit and tie caffeine edition of the show. Dame you know, every year the Internal Revenue Service gets together without their brains and puts together the increases in contribution limits that people can put into retirement vehicles and health savings accounts and all sorts of other things. And what is shocking about this every year is how predictable they are when it comes to increasing the amount of money that people can put away in a tax sensitive way. Now, before we get to this list, which is, again, always shockingly predictable, I have to note there has been a lot of criticism of late of retirement vehicles tax sensitivity and tax advantage as it specifically relates to the income gap and how retirement plans unfairly reward those with money, which in turn leaves people without as much money behind.
20:00
Peter Dunn
And so I want to acknowledge that, and I want to say that our topic today is to cover the numbers, and it's to cover how it impacts people who consistently try to max out these vehicles. I completely understand that is insensitive to people who can't put money in the plan. And for that, I'm not dismissive of you. I just want to get the numbers. Is that fair?
20:23
Damian Dunn
Dame yes, I think that's incredibly fair.
20:26
Peter Dunn
Which, by the way, this plays into the story, I have to tell you after the show. All right? So, Dame, in 2021, if you were to max out your 401 or a 403 B or a 457 B, and if we hear those numbers, it's section 401 subsection K of the tax code. So when you hear 529 plan or 403 B, it's part of the code of the IRS code. So $19,500 is what you can put in the year 2021. And I kind of want to look at the historical numbers. Maybe you can pull them up as we're talking here. Dame but I remember not too long ago, it was $18,000. And I feel like that was ten years ago.
21:17
Damian Dunn
I don't know if it's that long ago, but I know 2020, it was 19 five as well.
21:22
Peter Dunn
Yeah. So here's the thing. There is a retirement crisis in our country. There has been for decades, and it's going to get worse. One of the ways that people can prepare for the retirement crisis is to put the right amount of money away for retirement by not moving the limits up. In some respects, it dissuades people from properly planning from a tax perspective for retirement. And dame, you might say, well, people will have the max from a tax sensitivity standpoint. They can still max it out and then save other money. That's not what people do. They put in the max and then they stop saving. And that's my beef.
22:06
Damian Dunn
I have those historical numbers. Do you want to play a little guessing game real quick?
22:09
Peter Dunn
Oh, I love a good guessing game. How far back can you go? Okay.
22:19
Damian Dunn
Let'S go back to 2018. Pete?
22:24
Peter Dunn
Oh, we're going to go backwards.
22:26
Damian Dunn
You want to start at 2000 and go forwards?
22:29
Peter Dunn
Let's start at 2000 and go forward because I think this will be the hardest thing to do.
22:32
Damian Dunn
2000 employee Contribution Limit year 2000 $12,000.
22:37
Peter Dunn
10,005 oh, dangerously close for a dummy. Okay, that's the way to go. Good thinking here. Oh man, I'm so bad at guessing everything. Okay, 16,016.
23:03
Damian Dunn
Five. I count that as a win right there. I don't 2015.
23:09
Peter Dunn
Okay, what was the previous year?
23:14
Damian Dunn
2014 would be the previous year from 2015.
23:16
Peter Dunn
Yes.
23:19
Damian Dunn
Yes, exactly right.
23:20
Peter Dunn
Oh my God. Big gas energy. Yeah.
23:26
Damian Dunn
And then we'll just fast forward today. So over 22 years, we have not even doubled it.
23:36
Peter Dunn
See, that seems bad. Yeah, I mean, that seems real bad. And so in 2022, the number, it actually went up 1000. Bones. 20,500 is the max you can put into your 401K if you're 49 years old or younger, the catch up contribution. Meaning and that's catch up not ketchup or cats up for that matter. Isn't that always weird?
24:08
Damian Dunn
Yes.
24:09
Peter Dunn
I don't even get it. Who does that?
24:12
Damian Dunn
I don't know.
24:13
Peter Dunn
I don't trust anyone that's like, oh yeah, it's homemade cats up. And it's like, get out of here.
24:19
Damian Dunn
No.
24:20
Peter Dunn
Anyway, if you're 50 years old or older, you can put an additional $6,500 in your 401K or 403 b or 407, and that limit did not change. So in 2021, it was 6500 and it's 6500 in 2022.
24:36
Damian Dunn
You want to talk some really weird stuff about the history of catch up contributions?
24:41
Peter Dunn
I do.
24:42
Damian Dunn
2002, 1st year it was implemented, the standard employee contribution limit was $11,000. The catch up was $1,000.
24:52
Peter Dunn
That's so not good. I mean, that doesn't even make sense. So 10% of the contribution.
24:57
Damian Dunn
Yeah, and so in successive years, it went from 12345 and it held at five for a few years, three years, then it got bumped up all the way to $5,500 and held there for probably seven or eight years, and then 6000 up to 6500. So now in comparison, percentage wise, the catch up is pretty meaningful.
25:20
Peter Dunn
Yeah. I think what's fascinating and it actually supports my point that there's no thinking going on here. It's like, man, we got to make them go up. Make them go up. If we're saying that people who are over the age of 50 could behind the eight ball, they could behind on their contributions and early on, just, what, ten years ago or whatever, it was only $1,000, that's going to help them solve their problems, being able to put $1,000 more away in a tax sensitive way. I don't like to be so cynical towards bureaucracy and government decisions. I really try to say, look, I know it's a lot harder than you and me deciding what to do. I know there's a lot more complexity to it, but this is one of those things that we happen to have some informed opinions on that it doesn't track.
26:15
Peter Dunn
If there is a financial crisis on the horizon from a retirement income standpoint, especially related to Social Security and its instability, why in the world would you not give people more of a means to support themselves in a responsible way with good contribution limits, tax dollars? I know. Go ahead.
26:40
Damian Dunn
So the other thing that really gets me and probably gets you as well, the fact that the IRA contribution is so low in comparison.
26:48
Peter Dunn
Okay. So, yeah, let's do that, because I'm so with you, it is more problematic than what we've just talked about.
26:56
Damian Dunn
Why don't we just have a flat amount that can be saved in a qualified account of some sort? Whether it's a IRA, I don't care. You put a cap on it, and if you happen to save all of it into a 401K, fantastic. If you want to put 20 or 30 or whatever that cap comes out to into an IRA versus a 401K or 15 and 15, I don't care. But let's put a level cap on it across all platforms and call it a day.
27:24
Peter Dunn
Here. Here. I feel like you and I are running for office.
27:27
Damian Dunn
Bully.
27:28
Peter Dunn
I'd be quite the ticket.
27:30
Damian Dunn
Done and done.
27:31
Peter Dunn
Done and done. And then you do like, a thing that dealers do when they show you they don't have any cards up their sleeves. Done and done. $6,000 is the limit in 2022. In $1,000 is the catch up provision. So they don't change. They didn't go up a dime. Okay. Remember, my earliest comments in this segment was about how insensitive we're being to people who don't put money in any of these plans that have different issues. I'm going to revisit that. Well, I'm not going to revisit because we're going to break. Dame. Coming up after the break, how close were our market predictions? We'll find out. I'm Pete the planner. This is the show. All right. Isn't it amazing that you can talk about IRA contribution limits for nine minutes and 23 seconds and then run out of time?
28:26
Damian Dunn
Yeah, we felt pinched at the end.
28:28
Peter Dunn
Do you remember the first time you were on the show and you realized that there was time to fill? Right. It's a concept of filling a segment, and you try to get your head around it and you're like, what are we going to talk about for that long? I remember my show when it first started. I want to say it was 2 hours long. I've told you this before, it was an hour. Then maybe it went to 2 hours. I don't remember. My show was 2 hours long at one point. I remember the first few episodes of this show. I would spend hours this is in 2008 or 2009 hours planning segments. And then now he's gotten to the point where before the show, Dan was like, hey, what do you think about this? You were like, okay. And then we just talk for nine minutes and 23 seconds.
29:12
Peter Dunn
Passionately about Iris contribution limits.
29:16
Damian Dunn
Who wanted to listen to you for 2 hours?
29:20
Peter Dunn
Who wants to listen to us for 36 minutes?
29:23
Damian Dunn
Were you spinning today's hits in there as well?
29:25
Peter Dunn
I've always wanted to talk up, hit the post, those sorts of things.
29:31
Damian Dunn
There's got to be a station indy that would let you sit in for an hour and just oh, absolutely.
29:37
Peter Dunn
Yeah. It's funny. I have a theory about calling in favors like that. I could probably get it done, but you really gotta I don't call in favors a lot, so I want to make sure maybe I use that favor I'd be asking that sort of person for something else. That's fair. Okay. It's prediction time. Dame. Oh, I'm so excited. So excited. Now, like I said, we should probably have pulled the tape to see and by the tape, I mean the digital audio to learn what our predictions were. But I think I know what my prediction was.
30:11
Damian Dunn
I think you're going to be close enough to whatever I said, that I don't care.
30:15
Peter Dunn
All right, you ready to go?
30:17
Damian Dunn
Yeah.
30:18
Peter Dunn
Three, two, one. Back on the Pete the Planner show. Dame last year, in December of 2020, in hindsight, we decided to make predictions about the stock market, things that in a ridiculous way, of course, because we don't want anyone to act on those things. We're making the predictions for entertainment purposes only. We didn't want a single person to make investment decisions based on what we thought would happen with rather uninformed guesses. And so today, with just under 50 days left in the calendar year, we're going to take a look at how close our predictions are to coming true. Okay, let's start with the broad market, the S and P 500. It's not that broad, but we're going to start with a market index. My prediction in December of 2020 was 22 or 23%. And in fact, I say it that way because at the beginning of the segment, I think I said one thing and then I slipped and.
31:23
Peter Dunn
Said something else at the end of the segment, so I guessed both 22 and 23, which is not exactly fair, but that's what I guessed.
31:29
Damian Dunn
We'll split that right in the middle and go with 22 and a half.
31:32
Peter Dunn
Fair enough. Do you remember your guess?
31:35
Damian Dunn
It was much milder, like twelve or 13.
31:41
Peter Dunn
I feel like you said eleven.
31:43
Damian Dunn
That's possible.
31:43
Peter Dunn
Yeah, I feel like you said eleven. You know what's funny? Occasionally I'll do live streaming events with financial advisors around the country for their webinars and whatever. And so at around that time of year, after you and I had done that, I decided just to sort of chat it up with these advisors in front of their clients and ask them for their predictions. And I had forgotten that when you're in that world, you generally don't want to make predictions like that. And so they'd get real skittish, they'd get real upset. But it wasn't occurring to me because I'm just trying to fill time. And so people were like 4% 7%, because they're just trying to be so conservative, and you and I are idiots. Right? So we're just like about 23, 22 and a half. All right, so as of right now, and we're recording this show the day after Veterans Day.
32:30
Peter Dunn
Thank you, everyone, for your service. At November 12, 2021, the S and P 500, as of 10:32 A.m. Is up 24.5%. Wow, there's that big guess energy again.
32:50
Damian Dunn
Yeah, I think I'm hoping it comes back just a smidge so we can play prices right. Rules on that?
32:57
Peter Dunn
Yeah. What do you think? Do you think if I'm over, you automatically win? Is that the way we're going?
33:02
Damian Dunn
Yeah, I think that's how you always play guessing games like this.
33:05
Peter Dunn
I think you have to. So when you thought my guess was ridiculous, at 22, 23%, you could have gone one dollars, you could have gone negative 15%.
33:16
Damian Dunn
Sure made it real safe.
33:19
Peter Dunn
Unfortunately. Here's what's going to happen. By the way, we're up 31.74%. Twelve months ago today, 365 days. Here's where I'm concerned about my guests hitting the skits, the debt ceiling debacle, which is on the horizon, because here's what's going to happen. You know what's going to happen. There is the threat of a government shutdown early December, we're running out of funds, and there's also the threat of the debt ceiling being reached and Congress trying to tie votes to bills and other things, which is just absurd. And so I think the market is going to get kicked in the shorts, and then it's going to take 20 days or so for it to recover a little bit and rally to the year end as long as no other crazy garbage is going on. And that's a pretty big although. And so if that's the case, I have a shot.
34:13
Peter Dunn
But that ceiling thing has got me really nervous.
34:16
Damian Dunn
I think it's a very reasonable possibility that we limp to the end of this year, stumble a couple of times and then just coast into 2022.
34:29
Peter Dunn
Okay. So we are going to make an updated guess that does not negate the first guess. Okay, so right now we're up 24%. I said we're going to end at 22 or 23. You said eleven. We think. Where do you want to cast your final two thousand and twenty one S and P? Five hundred return. Where do you want to put it? You know what? I'll take the under. I'll take 16.
34:58
Damian Dunn
Oh, you're talking about a big kick.
35:00
Peter Dunn
I am. When you talk about stumble, I think we are going to stumble. Hey, everybody, 16% rate of return in a market index in a recession. Coming out of a recession. That's remarkable. It's great. It's another reason why you can't freak out when the economy starts looking shaky. It's the same reason that on March 23 of 2020, when the S and P 500 had fallen 34% since February 19, just a month earlier, you can't freak out. Why? Because it took 148 days from March 23 for the market to go back up. And now a year removed, the market may give us 20%, 16%. So I'm going with 16%.
35:48
Damian Dunn
All right, that's fair enough. We'll be interesting to see on that first show in January.
35:53
Peter Dunn
Okay, so then we made some other guesses. You picked your equity of the year and you did not want a single person to invest in it. Can I ask you, did you invest in it? You did invest in it prior to giving it as the tip, or would you wait until of course, because you were front running and you disclosed this, I believe. I feel like you disclosed last year that you owned shares of this and you would own it individually, not as part of a fund. You made an individual decision. Okay. So quit bearing the lead here. Thor Industries, tell us about it. Dame, why did you choose Thor Industries?
36:32
Damian Dunn
They are one of the largest RV manufacturers in the country. They have a number of brands that are under their umbrella, do a really good job. They're an Indiana company. And I thought the push towards people spending their vacation time away from traditional hotel resort type environments might continue on and maybe gain a little traction. So I thought, why not go with a great locally owned company and see if we can make some money on that?
37:04
Peter Dunn
So early on, you made incredible progress. The stock started began the year in the low ninety s ninety two point twenty five, I think was its low for the year. Don't quote me on that. By March 17, it had climbed to 152 20, actually. Yeah, 152 20. So on the year, your prediction for equity of the year, thor Industries up 22.41%, actually trailing the S and P 500. Go figure. How do you feel about that guess right now.
37:45
Damian Dunn
I'm okay with that. I mean, there's no Tesla, but I'm okay.
37:48
Peter Dunn
Do you feel better about it on its own or in relation to my pick? Yes. Okay, Mr. Genius. My pick for the year was sort of the antithesis of your pick. Your pick was people are going to want to go, but they're not going to want to fly. They're going to want to be in a giant bread truck with a couch in it and they're going to have an RV. Sorry, I guess we just lost all our RV sponsorship money. I said, dame, people are going to want to fly the friendly skies. So Delta airline was my choice of the year. It began the year at 38.45. What's? It slow 38.45, the first trading session of the year. It is now up to 42.95. The math is not going to support me doing well. It is up 7.7% for the year. I got hammered on this one, and that's not a thorough joke.
38:51
Damian Dunn
The year is not over.
38:53
Peter Dunn
Okay, well, who has a better chance of ending the year strong, you or me?
38:58
Damian Dunn
Me, for sure.
38:59
Peter Dunn
Yeah.
39:00
Damian Dunn
I mean, it's essentially over, but I'm just trying to be nice. It's not over.
39:05
Peter Dunn
I can't remember what I said about peloton, although I did say something about peloton. It has gotten absolutely destroyed, wrecked. It is down for the year because that was, of course, one of the it's like zoom. It's like a hot stock during when people can't go and do anything. It is down. I can't even find it a lot. 52 week range was up to $171 a share. It's trading at $49 a share.
39:37
Damian Dunn
Yeah. That spun really quickly, didn't it?
39:42
Peter Dunn
I see what you did there. Coming up after the break, biggest waste of money of the week, general Electric splitting into three companies. Not so general anymore, more like specific electric, am I right? We'll be back right after this. I've been thinking about that joke since I saw the news, and I didn't know whether or not you were going to do that story in your current events, and so I had to slip it in any way I could.
40:09
Damian Dunn
No, I did not have that one.
40:11
Peter Dunn
I saw that news. I'm like watching the news in the morning. My kids are having waffles or whatever, and it's like General Electric announced blah, blah. And I was like, more like specific electric. Right. Jim Broom says, would Damien ever be open to being a guest on the stacking Benjamin show? Yeah. You want to be on the stacking Benjamin show?
40:34
Damian Dunn
Jim just asked, is Jim in a position to make that happen?
40:38
Peter Dunn
Yeah, Jim, are you in a position to make that happen or is he.
40:40
Damian Dunn
Just like, hey, I think Damien would be a decent fit for stacking Benjamin.
40:44
Peter Dunn
Joe, the host of Stacking Benjamins is a wonderful man. Wonderful man. You haven't I haven't. He looks like us. I know. I love Joe occasionally, and I don't mean, occasionally he's funnier than me. That's not where I'm going with it. Occasionally I listen to him and I think, god, he's a better version of me than me. He's just a much better and it's frustrating, but I'm happy for him. There's more than enough to go around.
41:16
Damian Dunn
Oh yeah.
41:18
Peter Dunn
For bald white guys that look exactly like Dame Joe and I good Lord. Okay. You'd be good on his show. Right here on the Pete the Planner show is the Baccarat Times Pokemon Times Fragment pikachu crystal Figure. Money with friends, they have various guests and whatnot on there?
41:31
Damian Dunn
Is that the piece where they read stories and talk about them?
41:34
Peter Dunn
Yeah. It's your wheelhouse. Yeah. Okay. You ready for biggest waste of money of the week?
41:39
Damian Dunn
Yeah.
41:40
Peter Dunn
Bigger question is, am I ready for the biggest waste of money of the week?
41:44
Damian Dunn
I hope so. Are you going to have to look for something?
41:46
Peter Dunn
Three, two, one. This week's biggest waste of money of the week. Right here on the Pizza Planner show is the Baccarat Times Pokemon Times Fragment pikachu crystal Figure. By the way, Dame, when it says X, does it mean times or does it mean PLA? Like, how do you say that? X. It's a combination. Baccarac pays homage or homage to the 25th anniversary of Pokemon with a limited Pikachu Fragment figure. Designed by Fragment founder Hiroshi Fujiwara, the statue stands almost twelve inches tall and features the beloved character. Made entirely from crystal. Its multifaceted design produces a brilliant effect and features an engraved electric logo. Only 25 pieces of the limited edition item were created, but collectors also have the option to NAB a smaller crystallized Pikachu and a radiant gold mesh pokeball. Dame, what would you pay for a twelve inch Pikachu made out of Bakarat crystal by the one and only Hiroshi Fujiwara?
43:09
Damian Dunn
Origato can I just buy the NFT of it and call it a day?
43:15
Peter Dunn
No, you can. It's $25,000 for this, 25,000 for a twelve inch crystal Pikachu. Now, I have to note, my son still loves Pokemon cards. There's like a resurgence every once in a while. Like, my nephews played with them and then my son has them and he's like, this is a wizard, Roger. And I'm like, hey, man, that's not part of my culture, but I'm happy for you. And he's like, this one's worth $300 and there's like seven bent corners and I'm like, Bro, that's not worth $700. Is Thomas into the Pokemon?
43:53
Damian Dunn
No, I think the most cards he's ever had is like three or four, and it was because somebody gave them to him and yeah, that was it. So I thankfully dodged that bullet.
44:05
Peter Dunn
And my daughter, who's in middle school, some of the middle school boys are into Pokemon.
44:09
Damian Dunn
Do you know that there are tournaments that pay legit money for stuff like that?
44:16
Peter Dunn
Yeah, two, three times a year. And I think you and I've discussed this recently, I'm always like, who's the sucker here? Are we the sucker or are people who get paid to play Pokemon the Sucker. Not that it's a contest, but if someone's getting paid to play Pokemon and I'm working 200 hours a week wearing a cheap suit, who's the sucker? It's me. Right? Yeah. So disheartening.
44:50
Damian Dunn
Would you put these things on a shelf next to your little ceramic figurine? What do you do with this?
44:55
Peter Dunn
Yeah, that is a good question. Where do you place this chotchki? Okay, I don't want to tip my hand here, but if this were to be the gift that arrived under your Christmas tree from your employer this year, where would you place it? In your home. And I want you to think about this and not come up with jokes. Where would you put something of this level of reverence?
45:22
Damian Dunn
Probably in the box that it came in after I took pictures and put it on ebay.
45:28
Peter Dunn
Yeah, I'm trying to think. Where would I put it? It would probably go on a shelf behind my desk in my office at home, and then it would just sit there and collect dust right next to my Pike High School Hall of Fame plaque. Dame. What's in the news this week?
45:41
Damian Dunn
I think it should have gone on the bookshelf behind you right now. Pete, would you like to go with a little bit of holiday type story or something a little bit more investy?
45:53
Peter Dunn
Let's start with investy and then get more festive.
45:56
Damian Dunn
Okay. Collectors know exactly what they want from art. More.
46:02
Peter Dunn
A lot more.
46:04
Damian Dunn
Starting Tuesday. This past Tuesday, the world's chief auction houses, Sothbee's Christie's and a boutique house called Phillips, will seek to sell at least $1.6 billion worth of art doing during a two week series of sales, setting an expectation they haven't met in the past three years. The houses estimate at least 15 pieces will sell for over $20 million, including examples by few guys I can't talk about or at least pronounce their names. And Van Gogh. Of course. Recent discoveries such as Reggie Burrows Hodges are also poised to fly to records. How to tell? Last month in London, Mr. Hodges auction debuted with for the Greater Good that's the piece sold for $606,000, nearly 15 times the estimate. Quote people don't care if they have to pay a million dollars for a piece that's priced to sell for $60,000, said Alex Rodder, chairman of Christie's 2021 art departments.
47:00
Damian Dunn
They're making up their own rules.
47:03
Peter Dunn
Did you see that piece in the Journal this week about how millennials are shunning financial advisors because they're pretty confident they can manage their own half a million to a million dollars easily?
47:13
Damian Dunn
I did, and I thought that was really funny to assume that big investment firms are chasing millennials with half a million dollars.
47:22
Peter Dunn
I didn't think of it that way. Yeah, so art is one of those things. I like art, but my wallet doesn't. Right? I mean, I'll buy some art, a couple of $100 here and there, yeah, as an investment or as a vanity play. Not my thing. That being said, I have friends that are in the art world, do great, love it. That's their passion. But as a person, like, where's my money go? I appreciate art, but my wallet doesn't.
47:47
Damian Dunn
Have you seen those things where you can buy, like, fractional shares of big, important paintings and they have a plan on selling them down the road, and so you're in for a limited amount of time, and you either get a gain or you don't?
48:03
Peter Dunn
It makes sense. I did see a friend of the show, Justin Costelli. He recently has been purchasing NFTs. Like, he's big into NFTs, and he put an art piece that what's Carl's last name?
48:19
Damian Dunn
Richards.
48:19
Peter Dunn
Carl Richards. Sort of. He's a financial guy, financial planner. Does little illustrations that are really cool. He bought fractional NFTs of that, so I know fractional investments of tangible and digitally tangible things are a thing. Yeah.
48:38
Damian Dunn
In her 39 years of booking Santa's for holiday events, susan Mesco says she hasn't had a year like this one.
48:44
Peter Dunn
Is this good or bad? Okay, guessing game.
48:47
Damian Dunn
Sure.
48:47
Peter Dunn
Is it hard to find Santa's, or is it easy to find Santa's? Is that what I'm looking to tear out a guess here.
48:53
Damian Dunn
Sure.
48:56
Peter Dunn
I think it's difficult to find a good Santa these days.
48:59
Damian Dunn
Mrs. Mesco has worked late nights and early mornings since September, fielding calls on an average of eight minutes from clients desperate to secure a jolly bearded man in a red suit for their holiday event. Never before, not even in the Christmas party boom of the 80s, as she had to turn customers away. Pete, if you had to guess.
49:21
Peter Dunn
Oh, I love to guess.
49:22
Damian Dunn
Hourly wages for a good Santa.
49:26
Peter Dunn
Okay.
49:30
Damian Dunn
Big cities. Not some little rural Indiana town. Big cities.
49:34
Peter Dunn
$100 an hour.
49:36
Damian Dunn
They will range between 175 and $300 an hour.
49:42
Peter Dunn
What am I doing? I need to eat some pudding and grow a beard.
49:47
Damian Dunn
How do you feel about letting kids sit on your lap for $300 an hour, Pete?
49:52
Speaker 3
Well, it's funny you ask. Dame it's. Santa, have you been a good dog this year?
50:01
Damian Dunn
Comparatively speaking, yes.
50:04
Speaker 3
I want to work on my Santa Patter. If I were to have children on my lap, I want to try out some lines that I would say to them. And so you just evaluate if you would pay me $300 an hour.
50:16
Peter Dunn
Okay.
50:18
Speaker 3
Hello, Tyler. How's all the gaming going?
50:24
Damian Dunn
Relevant, but maybe they don't get to play games. I don't know.
50:29
Speaker 3
Tyler, do you make eye contact with people when you talk to them? You engage and stay off the social media?
50:37
Damian Dunn
Of course.
50:39
Speaker 3
All right, well, we'll be sure to buy you tailor. Two cities. Charles Dickens.
50:45
Damian Dunn
Well, that sucks.
50:47
Peter Dunn
All right, see, that I would not be a good Santa. That's the thing. For $300, though, I could come up with some I could act interested in children in a professional way for $300.
50:57
Damian Dunn
I'm glad you made that little addition there, Dame.
51:01
Peter Dunn
I hope you have a great week in the coming week. I plan on it. I'm going to go leave the show and pay my mortgage in person, which is my favorite thing to do. So, to everyone else, hope you have a great week. We are back next week, and then we may take a break for Thanksgiving week. I'm decided I'm supposed to take the week off, but that never happens. So anyway, it's with this. I say I'm sending you good vibes, because good vibes are all that's in the budget. I'm Pete the Planner, and this is the Pete the Planner show. All right. I mean, jokes about my relationship with children. I think we've people. We're done with that.
51:35
Damian Dunn
People love that.
51:36
Peter Dunn
Yeah, they do. All right, Dame, so here's what we're going to do. I got to go. I'm going to call you in about 25 to 30 minutes, and I'm going to tell you actually, no, I'm not. It will ruin my day. I'm going to tell you next week because it'll ruin my day. Okay. I'll get so upset. You might just call Oz and ask.
51:54
Damian Dunn
Her because no, I want to hear it from you.
51:57
Peter Dunn
Oh, my God, I need her there, too, because she'll be like, my hype man. She'll be like it happened. It happened.
52:03
Damian Dunn
Was she there?
52:06
Peter Dunn
I can't tell you anymore. She was there. She was there. She witnessed the whole thing. I should actually send you my slack messages to her as it was happening. They're explicit.
52:23
Damian Dunn
Actually.
52:23
Peter Dunn
I want to look at them real quick. All right, I know. Hey, everybody. Oh, my gosh. Here's one. Here's the slack message tour. Six minutes in, I want to die. 30 seconds later. I can't.
52:49
Damian Dunn
I think I know.
52:50
Peter Dunn
16 minutes later. We're never doing this again. Eleven minutes later, please come into my office and stab me. Yeah. Oh, my gosh.
53:07
Damian Dunn
I have to wait days to hear this story now.
53:10
Peter Dunn
I walked out of my office and went out to her desk, and she had, like, averted her eye. She did nothing wrong. I mean, I don't get mad at people, but it was oh, boy. Okay, that's it. Anything you want to say to all of the listeners? Name?
53:29
Damian Dunn
No?
53:30
Peter Dunn
Okay, well, then I'll say that all needs to be said. Stay getting money.
