00:02
Peter Dunn
It's the Pete the Planner show, starring Peter Dunn as Pete the Planner, kristen Ahlenius as the life breather into the show, and Damian Dunn as not the brother. Hello, everybody. Hey, Kristen.
00:17
Kristen Ahlenius
Hello.
00:18
Peter Dunn
Hey, we got feedback that Kristen breathed new life into the show.
00:23
Damian Dunn
They're not wrong.
00:24
Peter Dunn
I 100% agree. Two old buddy duddies sitting around talking. No one wants to listen to that. Kristen, you good?
00:34
Kristen Ahlenius
I'm good.
00:35
Peter Dunn
Come back from Vegas with money?
00:37
Kristen Ahlenius
No. And I came back a day late, so it was not good.
00:41
Peter Dunn
Are you saying you came back a day late and a dollar short?
00:45
Kristen Ahlenius
That's not good.
00:47
Damian Dunn
Come on.
00:51
Peter Dunn
Did you gamble?
00:54
Kristen Ahlenius
I did.
00:55
Peter Dunn
Did you end up spending the money or breaking even or winning money?
01:02
Kristen Ahlenius
I lost money, but less than what I took as an allowance.
01:06
Peter Dunn
Okay. Yeah. Dame, you didn't do any of your vices last weekend, did you?
01:13
Damian Dunn
I would have to take an inventory of my vices to make sure I could 100% stand behind that, but sure.
01:20
Peter Dunn
I employed one of my most dangerous vices this past weekend. On Monday night in Des Moines, Iowa. A suburb of Des Moines, Iowa. I went to a steakhouse called Rube's Steakhouse. It's an old school style place. You go down, you sit down, they serve you a big family style salad. Then you follow your waiter up into this meat counter like it's a butcher shop. You point to the steak you want, they put it on a plate for you, and then they usher you around this giant 20 x ten foot charcoal grill in which you grill your own steak, you make your own Texas toast, you grill your own vegetables. I got the two and a half inch thick porter house because I thought that was a good idea on a Monday with copious amounts of wine and then a 04:00 a.m. Wake up call to make my flight back across the country.
02:18
Peter Dunn
I regret everything.
02:21
Damian Dunn
Wow, that's strong.
02:23
Peter Dunn
So anyway, all right, the great debate begins today. Kristen, from what understand, doesn't think we're in a recession.
02:33
Kristen Ahlenius
Wait, what?
02:34
Peter Dunn
Wait, you do think we're in a recession?
02:37
Damian Dunn
We don't have two sides of this debate. Hang on.
02:39
Peter Dunn
Wait a second. I said we're in a recession, so.
02:42
Kristen Ahlenius
How is this I said we're in a recession. Of course we're in a recession.
02:46
Peter Dunn
What are we going to talk about?
02:48
Kristen Ahlenius
Apparently, we're just going to say that we are we're going to argue against the president. I thought you were saying that weren't.
02:55
Peter Dunn
Why would I say that? I'm not an idiot.
02:57
Kristen Ahlenius
That's what I'm saying. Why would you think I would say that?
03:00
Peter Dunn
Oh, that felt weird.
03:03
Kristen Ahlenius
I'm not an idiot.
03:05
Peter Dunn
Oh, Rick Swink arrives just in time. I thought you were being, like, a young contrarian.
03:12
Kristen Ahlenius
No, I'm old on the inside.
03:15
Peter Dunn
This might be the best moment in history of the show.
03:19
Kristen Ahlenius
You called me an idiot.
03:21
Peter Dunn
No, I didn't call you an idiot. All right, so Dave, here's what we're going to do. We're going to have what people like to call a snowball, where one person gives a perspective and the other one just piles on. They're like, yeah, that's what we're going to do. In the first segment, you were the moderator of the world's first snowball debate. Okay, rick asks, what are we doing here today? Why are we here? For those that listen to Pod, first of all, I'm sorry I put it up late this week. That's on me. Number two, I've got a speaking gig all day tomorrow. So sorry, Kristen's not going to be in, know, Jersey city or some other fantastic place.
04:07
Damian Dunn
Atlantic City.
04:08
Peter Dunn
That's where I was going for and I missed it. On three, two I'm not ready yet. Hold on. One this week on the Pete the planner show, we answer your money questions. Here's how the show works. You email us, askpete@petetheplanner.com that's, askpete@petetheplanner.com, and we yes, we answer your query. Joining me as always this week is the director of education, Kristen Ahlenius at your money line and who cares about his title, damian Dunn, also at your money line. Hello, friends.
04:51
Kristen Ahlenius
Hello, Pete.
04:52
Damian Dunn
No relation.
04:53
Peter Dunn
No relation. Dame, I have seen that certain people have said we're not in a recession or they've tried to redefine what a recession is. And it's really sort of understandable that those conversations are taking place. And while I don't want people to panic that we're in a recession, I think it's important to honestly observe as to whether we really are in a recession so that people can properly prepare themselves for it. And I think by sweeping the terminology under the rug, you do people a disservice. And so, Dame, we're going to play a little game called the recession the great debate snowball edition. Usually in a debate, there are two sides to an issue, but neither of them will be represented. In this debate, it is me making a point and Kristen backing it up with facts. You are the moderator. Let us begin.
05:53
Damian Dunn
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today for this great snowball debate that Pete has so eloquently set up. Today we're going to be discussing, are we in a recession? Of course we are. But let's go to our panel, our esteemed panel.
06:10
Peter Dunn
First.
06:12
Damian Dunn
Kristen Ahlenius, director of Education at your money line. What say you? Are we in a recession?
06:20
Kristen Ahlenius
Yes, we are absolutely in a recession. And I think personally, this is why last week I thought maybe we would have a debate is because I think where we're at now is potentially worse than a recession because what we normally see in a recessive environment are decreasing interest rates and decreasing inflation, and the opposite is true and we're seeing potential rises in unemployment. So to me, that's almost worse than being in a recession, but that's also being used as the argument for why we're not in a recession.
06:58
Damian Dunn
Pete, there were a lot of big words there. What do you have to say?
07:03
Peter Dunn
I've never heard the term recessive environment. I'm, like, impressed. I'm going to have to put that in my search bot and see what it means. I will say this. I agree with Kristen about the idea that we're in a recession. However, the idea that we're something worse than a recession, that sort of piqued my interest. So now I believe there to be a real debate. Kristen I think we're in a recession, but I think it is going to be a rather pedestrian recession that has third quarter contraction, and then I think we'll be out in the fourth, possibly the first queue of 2023. So you're saying we're in something worse than a recession? What say you?
07:53
Kristen Ahlenius
I think it depends on where you're at, because if your family has seen or felt the effects of inflation and rising interest rates, maybe you weren't able to squeeze in like a refinance on your house or something with the low interest rate environments we've seen. And now you might be facing unemployment coupled with those two things. I think for some person, some households, what we're facing is going to be worse. Collectively, maybe not, but I definitely think if you're in an industry that's already seeing layoffs or you've seen or experienced unemployment, what you personally feel, which is what's most important to me anyway. I don't really care if the President or some senator from Florida disagree about whether or not we're in a recession. I care about how it feels to you. And I definitely think that there are households who think that this feels worse than just the word recession.
08:51
Damian Dunn
Pete are interest rates out of control for mortgages right now?
08:57
Peter Dunn
No, I would say interest rates are normal. The new normal threw us off as to what was normal. The fact that I got a ten year mortgage at two and a half percent makes me a robber baron. But it also means that's just highly unusual. Where we're at now is more realistic. And so I'll note, because of how our behavior and expectations have changed, the fact that interest rates are elevated off that artificial low will contribute to the recession ending sooner rather than later because people are going to change spending. I'll also note, although it was a pretty small downtick, we did see a slight downtick inflation off the previous highs on the last report, from my understanding.
09:49
Damian Dunn
Mr. Moderator, year over, actually, month to month, you are correct. Inflation was relatively flat year over year. It was still up like eight or 9%, I believe. But it is slowing down on a month to month basis now.
10:03
Peter Dunn
Moderator I don't want to jump in and ask questions of the other panelists, but I'm going to do that right now. Kristen I saw a report last night that lumber prices have dived. Doven dove crashed. Anyway, 63%.
10:20
Kristen Ahlenius
Wow.
10:21
Peter Dunn
Futures. Lumber futures. Kristen something that I keep asking myself, and I know a lot of people that have the same low level of intelligence that I do are asking themselves, now that prices have risen, are all goods and service prices going to come down to where they were? Or will they just inflate at a lower level based on where they are now?
10:48
Kristen Ahlenius
I would love for that first statement to be true, but is that reality?
10:54
Peter Dunn
Well so gas prices have come down.
10:57
Kristen Ahlenius
Okay, they're still high.
11:00
Peter Dunn
Sure, lumber prices have come down, but dame like I know that you love trick cereal, and I assume those prices are higher based on grain prices. Are you going to see a reduction in the price of tricks when things normalize, or are you going to see them inflate from where they are now at a slower pace?
11:23
Damian Dunn
Great question. There's a number of different ways they could do that. They could just increase again, potentially the size of the packaging and keep the price where they are and say you're getting more for your money and keep that price level for themselves. Maybe they do drag the price back. I'm not sure how they're going to approach this. We're all used to seeing the price of gas fluctuate on a day in, day out basis. We got really used to seeing prices in groceries go down at the very beginning of COVID a couple of years ago. But then there was a steady march up from that, just kept going and going and going. And I don't know if we'll see the price regression nearly as quickly as we see it going forward. I genuinely think, and this may be cynical of myself, that companies will hold on to their profits as long as they possibly can before they start to feel the pressure to decrease their prices back to a pre pandemic level.
12:22
Peter Dunn
Yeah, Kristen, I've been flying more and more, and despite the fact that I paid $900 to get to Des Moines, prices have normalized a little bit here recently where I can only pay $300 to get somewhere to grill my own steak or not. And so to some degree, to Dame's point here we are seeing prices again, quote unquote, normalize. Do you think of a particular product category, maybe even housing, where we're going to see just slower growth off those new artificial highs?
12:58
Kristen Ahlenius
That's tough, because I think there are some industries I think we have our individual biases. Like, I was just complaining the other day about how you used to be able to get a $5 footlong from Subway and now they're $11. Yeah, 1119 is what I paid for a foot long at Subway, like, two days ago.
13:14
Damian Dunn
What did you have to put on it?
13:16
Peter Dunn
Where were you? Dubai?
13:18
Kristen Ahlenius
No, the middle of nowhere. Indiana.
13:21
Peter Dunn
Wait a second. Breaking news. Five foot dollar footlongs are $11 1119 on their no way.
13:30
Kristen Ahlenius
Yes, I promise.
13:32
Damian Dunn
No, I need a receipt.
13:34
Peter Dunn
All right, look, everyone stay tuned. Coming up after the break, I'm going to pick my jaw off the floor and not put an $11 sandwich in it. I'm Pete the planner. Delightful. No Way.
13:50
Kristen Ahlenius
Yeah, because they have this new menu. They're, like, trying to be like Jimmy John's or Jersey Mike's where they have, like, set sandwiches with set toppings and they have twelve subs on that menu and the bulk of them are over. I don't know that there was one that was under $10 on that menu.
14:07
Damian Dunn
You just didn't pick off the right menu.
14:09
Kristen Ahlenius
Yes, I did.
14:10
Peter Dunn
Okay, this is unacceptable.
14:15
Damian Dunn
That wasn't a personal I had a.
14:17
Kristen Ahlenius
Chicken bacon ranch sub.
14:20
Peter Dunn
Okay, hold on, guys. I'm pulling up the menu. We're going to call Christian.
14:28
Kristen Ahlenius
I'm telling you, it was 1119.
14:30
Peter Dunn
Let me say hey, Christy.
14:32
Kristen Ahlenius
What?
14:33
Peter Dunn
You're a liar.
14:35
Kristen Ahlenius
Nah.
14:38
Peter Dunn
Okay?
14:39
Kristen Ahlenius
I'm pulling up my Subway app. I'm going to show you my order history right now.
14:42
Peter Dunn
No one wants to have your sandwich flex. Okay, here we go. I'm ready to go. We're going on the air in three, two, one. Back on the Pete the Planner show. Normally a financial show. Now a show that revolves around wild accusations of $5 footlongs costing north of $11. I'm your host, Peter Dunn. Pete, the planner. Joining me is not my brother Damien Dunn and sandwich conspiracy theorist Kristen Ahlenius, director of Sandwich conspiracies here at your money line. Kristen I'm on Subway's website right now looking at a cold cut. Combo I've decided to get a footlong. It is 570 American Calories and it costs $7.99. So your lies and manipulation are not welcome here. What sort of gold truffle sandwich did you have for $11?
15:41
Kristen Ahlenius
I did not. I had a chicken bacon ranch and it was eleven point $19. I'm looking at it right now.
15:47
Peter Dunn
Dame, please call out the obvious flaw in the thinking here.
15:50
Damian Dunn
There's bacon involved there.
15:53
Kristen Ahlenius
That's not a premium. That used to be just a standard sub. Oh.
15:57
Damian Dunn
Get with the times, Kristen.
15:59
Peter Dunn
If you're going to put pork on your fork, if you're going to dine on that swine, if you're going to dig on that pig, you're going to pay top dollar. All right, so, Dame, earlier in the show, before Kristen lost her ever living mind about sandwiches, were talking about the signs of the recession. All three of us obviously agree we're in a recession. Kristen seems to be a lot more concerned. Apparently because of all the exposure she has to sandwich inflation with the magnitude of this. So David is a recession. We're not dismissive of people's pain or moments they might be going through. Do you have any especially strong feelings about this recession? Or do you feel like it will be a normal, bad recession?
16:44
Damian Dunn
I think it's going to be pretty moderate, actually, as far as recessions go. I think there's going to be a lot of things that happen that we're going to scratch our heads and say that shouldn't be happening, but it is. But technically, we are in a recession and some people are suffering. For example, can we play early game? I know we usually do this in the last segment, but can we play a little guessing game?
17:07
Peter Dunn
What would we call the guessing game?
17:10
Damian Dunn
True or false?
17:11
Peter Dunn
True or false?
17:14
Damian Dunn
The Nasdaq is in bull market territory, which means up 20% since June. True or false?
17:22
Kristen Ahlenius
I want to say false, but I feel like you're tricking me.
17:24
Peter Dunn
No, he's not tricky. It's true.
17:27
Damian Dunn
It's true. It's absolutely true. How is that possible? How can we be I understand there's differences in what's being measured and whatnot but do people, a people don't know this. The average investor has no idea that's going on. But doesn't that seem a little counterintuitive that we would be in a bull market, in midst of a bull market and still in a recession at the same time? And if it doesn't, does that mean we're leading our way out of it? Are stocks a leading indicator? Are they an indicator? I can't remember. It's been too long since I took Econ 201.
18:01
Peter Dunn
I believe they're a leading indicator. I'm so butchered.
18:05
Kristen Ahlenius
That your economic cycle, right, is your expansion, your peak, your contraction and your trough. And usually you mark what, GDP, inflation, interest rates and unemployment. And those numbers are supposed to trend in a certain direction depending on where we are. And for the last two years and some change, those numbers have been so convoluted, how's anybody supposed to know?
18:32
Peter Dunn
That's fair. I mean, there's no doubt we're in unusual times because of the unusual circumstances of the world being shut down for two years, right? And so I think the question at hand, at least in my opinion, is this going to be a 17 month recession?
18:53
Damian Dunn
Do we have two quarters left?
18:55
Peter Dunn
Do we have one quarter left? And so, Kristen, what quarter do you think? The trough and head back up?
19:04
Kristen Ahlenius
I think we're going to sit here for a while. Personally. I know the two of you don't feel that way. I don't think we're halfway through it.
19:13
Peter Dunn
Well, that's not that bad. I mean, we're not that way much. So a while means different things to different people, primarily because Damien and I are twice your age, but.
19:23
Damian Dunn
We'Ve been.
19:23
Peter Dunn
Around it at a while. Give me a quarter that you think.
19:28
Kristen Ahlenius
Will be out Q three of next year.
19:31
Peter Dunn
Wow. I'll go q one. We'll be out in Q one.
19:37
Damian Dunn
Q One. That's what I had.
19:41
Peter Dunn
You're talking about 88 years worth of experience you're up against here, young lady.
19:49
Kristen Ahlenius
And, hey, I might be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
19:53
Peter Dunn
So what will be the first number within kristen, you mentioned GDP, you mentioned inflation, employment and something else. What will be the first? Interest rates. Did I say that already? What will be the first number turning the better direction, which is going to turn first, which turns in a positive way for it. Positive inflation means we inflate higher. But I'm saying positive inflation is sort of negative, probably.
20:27
Kristen Ahlenius
I think interest rates I think interest rates scare people the most. Do you think so?
20:34
Peter Dunn
Well, I don't know if I asked the question right, because dame, did you understand what I was saying? Because I'm saying which number will we feel good about seeing moving? I don't think interest rates are the first thing to come back down. My guess is I think inflation will be the first thing to come back down.
20:52
Damian Dunn
I think that's the one that's going to matter the most. I mean, mortgage rates have already fluctuated and wobble a little bit over the last few weeks. Once we see inflation tick down and to have meaningful movement in that I'm waiting for the year over year number, not the month to month number. Once we see things really start to flatten out on a year over year number, I think stability and confidence starts to enter back into the picture and then things will start to build off of that.
21:22
Peter Dunn
Yeah, I think it'll be interesting if we start to get major unemployment numbers coming in, then there is a case to be made that Chris right. If we do really see upticks in unemployment, I could argue third quarter. I could absolutely argue third quarter. Kristen, do you think that this is the way it's headed? Do you think that's what draws it out to the length of your belief?
21:48
Kristen Ahlenius
Yeah, probably. I mean, I hope I'm wrong. I hope that's not the case, but I do think and I could be biased as well, because the industries that I'm surrounded by are feeling it a little bit more than maybe what you're feeling in your market or Dame might be feeling in his market. So I recognize that I could have some geographical bias as well.
22:10
Damian Dunn
I was just about to say there's going to be pockets of the country that are just going to get slammed with unemployment. Christmas neck of the woods is one of them that's going to go up, and there's not a whole lot they can do about it. But that's not unusual for them either. The RV industry ebbs and flows all the time, and people I don't want to say they're used to it, but it's not totally unexpected to happen for them if they choose to work in that environment either. So, yeah, there's going to be absolutely pockets of the country that are going to be in worse shape than others, but I think it's going to be pretty moderate for a lot of the.
22:45
Peter Dunn
You know, during the early parts of the end of the world times. There was things like RVs to your point, dame that just were skyrocketing in popularity and price know, landscaping services and home renovations and pelotons that obviously changed. What do you think is coming down? I know this starts to feel like our stock market game, but do you feel like I wouldn't think RV prices are heading down anytime soon, but I would think things like home improvement potentially and landscaping and hardscaping services could start to come down. What do you think?
23:24
Damian Dunn
If RV prices stay inflated, that's their own choice. But they're already cutting way back on manufacturing. Well, way back on manufacturing. They've closed a couple plants in Northern Indiana already, so there's going to be discounts there. But some of the service industries, I think, will probably get some pullback as well.
23:45
Peter Dunn
Kristen, what's your gut say?
23:48
Kristen Ahlenius
I don't I again, I have that bias, I think, of RV and those things I can't really think of. That's just where my mind goes, I guess.
23:57
Peter Dunn
When did you have the $5 foot long? That was $11. What day was that?
24:01
Kristen Ahlenius
Like two days ago.
24:02
Peter Dunn
So in 48 hours, we've seen major sandwich deflation. Coming up after the break, one of your questions that came to us, and now the answer comes to your ears. I'm Pete the planner. This is the show. Really a lot of attention to the outros today question. Yeah.
24:19
Damian Dunn
This this Subway sandwich didn't happen to be purchased at an airport or someplace? Okay.
24:26
Kristen Ahlenius
No.
24:26
Peter Dunn
Can we rank sandwich shops real quick? And then I've got a quick story. So your choices are and you can add to them if you want. Well, actually, we'll add a few. Penn Station is out of the running because it's clearing away number one. Okay, so we're not doing that. We've got Subway Jim, John's, Jersey Mike's, and I will put Which Witch in there. And firehouse subs. Okay. So Jimmy John's Jersey mike's Subway which firehouse subs. Okay, Kristen, number one, sub. We're only going to go number one, two and three and four and five.
25:02
Kristen Ahlenius
What do you got, Jersey Mike's?
25:04
Peter Dunn
Number one is Jersey Mike's Dame.
25:07
Damian Dunn
I've only had sandwiches from two of those places, so it's going to be pretty narrow.
25:11
Peter Dunn
That's Jimmy John's, Jersey Mike's is clearing away number one there.
25:16
Kristen Ahlenius
Absolutely.
25:17
Peter Dunn
Number two. I will go. Oh, I forgot pop belly subs oh.
25:22
Damian Dunn
I've had Pot Belly, but it's been a long time.
25:24
Peter Dunn
What's your worst one on the actually, let's not do that. I'm not a hater. Okay. You guys want to hear a moderately interesting story?
25:31
Kristen Ahlenius
Yes.
25:33
Peter Dunn
I don't know. It kind of involves you guys in a roundabout way. I don't know, by association. Oh, we got some comments. Chris says Pop, Ellie is the goat. It really is big rick Swink says he likes a big witch. Witch. Grant says, kudos on us all working at the food bank yesterday. Great time. Great time. Little Spence, 49. He's part of the Spence family. Big Spence, Lil Spence, Short Spence. Yeah. Spence 50. He said, Why are we doing on Thursday? Did I miss something? No, we just couldn't do it on Friday. Last couple of days. And he appreciates Kristen's perspective. On relationships and money last week. Oh, that's really nice. So I'm listening, reading, as I call it. My wife calls it lazy. A new audiobook last week when I was in Iowa, and it was by Liz Smith. It's a memoir. Liz Smith is the political consultant that was a communications director for Pete Buttigieg presidential run.
26:34
Peter Dunn
She has served in several other capacities. So it was her memoir. Wonderful book. I thought it was going to be good. It ended up being a lot better than I thought it'd be on top of that. So that's not to be negative. I just thought it was really good. And I'm listening to the book, and she's talking about the strategy with Pete Buttigieg as to try to get him some footing as he was about to announce his running for president. Well, as you'll remember, Mayor Pete at the time, now Secretary of Transportation Pete was on our show. I interviewed him on our show by then, I think it was just me, right, Dame? Were you on the show back then?
27:13
Damian Dunn
Yeah, but I was not on that show. I think it was you. And.
27:20
Peter Dunn
He was I think he was part of anyway, yes, he was involved, but anyway, so he was on the show. Really interesting conversation. And it was one of those things like, I was really excited to get a presidential candidate on the show. I like Mayor Pete's vibe. That doesn't matter what I think. You can think whatever you like. But the whole time it was going on, I was like, why did he say yes? Why are they doing like, this is stupid. If I'm going to direct him, don't be on my show. It's the old I would never want to be in a club that would accept me as a member joke. And so she's talking about in her book that part of their strategy was to go on all of these little shows and podcasts, and the section in the book went on and on.
28:08
Peter Dunn
Like, it really got into detail to the point of if she had written one more sentence, I think she would have said the Pete the Planner show in the book. Like she was going so far down the mountain of this. And so another element to there's two other parts of the story. I'm in the Marriott hotel lobby in Des Moines while I'm listening to this book, to a section about when they're campaigning in Des Moines, and she's talking about the Marriott lobby in Des Moines, Iowa, that I'm standing in as I'm listening to the book, which was really weird. Final note, I sent her a tweet, as I tend to do to authors when I read their book, and I just thank them for writing it, tell them I enjoy it. As someone who's written a book or two, I find that nice, right? I like to be nice.
28:58
Peter Dunn
So I sent her a tweet, and I said, hey, this was really great. I appreciate you. And she said something. Blah, blah, blah. Thank you very much. It was so nice to hook you up with the other Pete back in the day. So she remembered me. Right. And then the other side was there's no way that he's the other Pete. I'm pretty sure I'm the other Pete at this point, but I thought that was a charming story that I would like to share.
29:26
Damian Dunn
Can I ask you a question?
29:28
Peter Dunn
Yes. And then we've got to go.
29:30
Damian Dunn
Did she narrate her own book?
29:32
Peter Dunn
No, but the woman's voice that they used is very similar in tenor to her voice, which was important to me as a consumer of the work.
29:42
Damian Dunn
Do you listen to those faster if you know the author is narrating their own book and you know who it is, do you listen to it in normal speed or do you speed it up and listen to it at a different pitch?
29:52
Peter Dunn
That's an amazing question. I am a 1.6 X listener to most books, but when it is the narrator of the book or someone who sounds like it, I slow it down to 1.2 or so, other than Seth Rogen because he's such a stoner. When I listened to his book, it was like 2.2. And so great question.
30:16
Kristen Ahlenius
Which question are we doing for this segment? Dame.
30:21
Damian Dunn
Which would you prefer? I'll give you the choice since you got a shout out on breathing life into this old tired podcast.
30:28
Kristen Ahlenius
I think my question is timely, but I was going to ask if you would read it just in case my Internet would blip because that's a lot of time.
30:37
Damian Dunn
Make sure I've got it on my.
30:38
Peter Dunn
Screen and then kristen, are you going to have to bail at the top of the hour?
30:42
Kristen Ahlenius
I have to bail at the top of the hour.
30:44
Peter Dunn
Okay. So we will kick you off the show in the appropriate amount of time, and if you just have to dive, you leave. You leave. Rather you not disappoint. So other than all of our listeners all right, Christy, Dame, you got it?
30:57
Damian Dunn
Got it.
30:58
Peter Dunn
Three, two, one. Back on the Pete the Planner show. Dame, this show occasionally answers questions from the people. This week we have said question, and since you've been doing such a good job of introing segments and being the moderator of debates, I put this question in your hands.
31:16
Damian Dunn
Not really introing anything because you brought us in from the break, but whatever. Hi, all. Student loan question. I'm currently a grad student getting my doctorate nice job. Congrats. And have seven semesters of school left before I graduate.
31:31
Peter Dunn
Oh, my God. Seems like forever. That person is never going to graduate. Holy crap. You're a lifelong student, sir and or ma'am.
31:39
Damian Dunn
I've used up the savings I had saved prior to starting school in the first year of school and will be living off of student loans for. The next two years and four months until I graduate and get my big person job, if it matters at all. Starting salary would between 175 and 200K after I graduate, and anticipate paying in some large monthly payments to chunk down my loans ASAP after graduation. Like, I hope to pay off my loans in two to four years postgrad. In regards to paying for school, it seems I have two options on my plate. One, a family member offered me a lump sum of $125,000 roughly right now to pay for school what? And would be giving it to me at a flat 4% interest rate. Interest would begin accumulating immediately. Or is this real? Yes. I take out federal student loans incrementally, semester by semester at a higher interest rate 23,000 spring, 20, 319 thousand summer, 23,000, 23,000, 16,000, 12,000 to cover tuition and cost of living.
32:50
Damian Dunn
Any recommendations? I tried to do some interest math, and it made me want to drink.
32:56
Peter Dunn
Well, I mean, good days, bad days. That's why the industry is always thriving. Thank you. Emailer dame if you're like. Kristen and I, the first question you're wondering is, what line of work are they in? Because if they happen to have exposure to the world of nonprofits, like a physician at a nonprofit hospital, the person would be a moron to take on a personal loan. What do you think?
33:22
Damian Dunn
That's absolutely the question that has to be answered. First and foremost, are they going to have access to PSLF? Because if you do, you can forget about all that crazy familial.
33:38
Peter Dunn
On what I didn't know.
33:41
Damian Dunn
Don't make it any more awkward than it has to be. Pete. Thank you. And just take out the student loans and then pay it off over ten years, make your 120 payments. Hopefully that lasts ten years, and then you wash your hands and walk away. Kristen, do you see this differently than I do?
33:56
Kristen Ahlenius
There are a few things that make this tricky, in my opinion. One, if we just compare interest rate to interest rate, the family member loan makes the most sense, right? Like, that's just basic math. You're not going to receive a federal student loan at this point for less than that 4%. However, how many people did the two of you know anecdotally that could let six figures sit in their bank account for the next four years and stay on budget for those years?
34:27
Damian Dunn
You're saying there might be a little bit of lifestyle inflation knowing that there's six figures sitting in your account?
34:34
Kristen Ahlenius
Yeah. So if we're looking at it from a behavioral perspective, I do not love the family loan for several reasons, because I don't really like it when people borrow money from their family members anyway, but also because who do I know that can leave 100 grand just sit in their bank account?
34:52
Damian Dunn
What if you were just to say, you know what? I'll bring you the bills each semester. Don't give me the lump sum because I'll do something stupid with it and you can just pay it as it comes.
35:02
Kristen Ahlenius
That's a legit question. But what if they're not willing to do that? What if they want the guaranteed 4% from the get go?
35:07
Peter Dunn
Yeah, I think this is about helping the person out. Can we call the person a name?
35:14
Damian Dunn
Let's go with Steve.
35:17
Peter Dunn
Steve who's?
35:18
Damian Dunn
Steve person.
35:20
Peter Dunn
Okay. And then Steve's uncle.
35:24
Damian Dunn
Chuck.
35:24
Kristen Ahlenius
Steve's uncle.
35:25
Peter Dunn
Okay. Chuck is not necessarily altruistic here. I think Chuck's looking for a guaranteed 4% because Chuck is asking Steve of Steve and Chuck fame to make a difficult decision, like it's some sort of riddle or brain twister teaser. So I don't know. I don't think I would do it if I'm steve. I think I would tell Chuck to just give me nicer holiday gifts. I don't think I would do it.
35:59
Kristen Ahlenius
Does your opinion change if we consider that the aggregate loan limit before you go into the plus program, you can only have $20,000 a year? And if we recall from, like, ten episodes ago, the loan fee on a Grad Plus loan is like 4%. So does that change your opinion, knowing this person is going to have a 4% fee? And then I think interest rates are like 7% on those loans.
36:31
Peter Dunn
A little bit. But I would also say once they get into the plus loan program, doesn't the income based repayment provisions changed in terms of PSLF, don't they go up to like, 20%?
36:42
Kristen Ahlenius
They should just be able to do the income well, it depends on what their income level is because if they're going to be a high income earner, pay e or repay e might make more sense because there are some different like on pay e, you never pay more than what you would have paid on ten year repayment. There are some nuanced differences. So that's the hard thing, too, is will you be a high income earner? Always. Is there going to be a scale up in your income with respect to PSLF? Of course.
37:14
Peter Dunn
Dame's shaking his head. I don't know if it's because someone busted into his studio and started calling him positive names or what. What's going on?
37:22
Damian Dunn
I'm trying to wrap my head around does the financial benefit outweigh any potential fallout that you have in a relationship with family members? You're going to be making $175 to $200,000 a year and you want to pay it off in two to four years. Is it worth taking money from somebody that you know when you already have a very workable plan to do it yourself?
37:52
Peter Dunn
All right, let's look at it this way, Dame. You get ten times to make this decision. How many of those ten times are you taking the loan from family?
38:08
Damian Dunn
Way less than half.
38:10
Peter Dunn
Okay. Kristen?
38:13
Kristen Ahlenius
Behaviorally, I don't know that I'm ever taking the loan from a family member.
38:17
Peter Dunn
Yeah, I'm below two, which I believe in all culture is one. Yeah, I don't think so. I don't like when I go out to dinner with a buddy and he picks up the tab in a sneaky way. I appreciate it, but then I'm always like, I got to buy the next one. I walk around owing this fella who knows what restaurant he picks next. You could stick it to me.
38:48
Damian Dunn
Seems reasonable.
38:52
Kristen Ahlenius
In an increasing interest. The other thing, too, though, is we're in an increasing interest rate environment. So what happens if student loan interest rates are even higher next year? The greater the gap between the 4% guarantee and whatever you'll pay for the loans that you take out through the department of education, the more likely I am to say, all right, fine, take the family member loan. But, man, do I hate that option.
39:16
Peter Dunn
I have an uncomfortable question to jump in front of Dane before he stays on topic to end this segment. And you don't have to answer this because I'm asking a very personal question of both of you, so you can just say punt. The question is, have you either ever borrowed and or lent money to family? The question is, have you ever borrowed, lent money to family? Or punt. Or punt. Those are your three choices. I will answer first. I have not. Oh, by the way, you don't have to say whether you've borrowed or lent. You can just say, yes, I have, or no, I haven't. I have not done either. Yes, no. Dame?
39:52
Damian Dunn
Yes. Both.
39:54
Peter Dunn
Kristen?
39:55
Kristen Ahlenius
I've lent.
39:56
Peter Dunn
Okay. So do you feel like that those experiences impact how you answer this question?
40:07
Damian Dunn
Not really. When I've done either side of that deal, we've had really good understanding, and we knew the other person wasn't any kind of a credit risk or anything. It just was convenience, that sort of thing.
40:22
Peter Dunn
All right, Kristen, real quick, before we head to break, I'm hungry. Can I borrow $11?
40:29
Kristen Ahlenius
No.
40:30
Peter Dunn
All right. Coming up after the break biggest waste of money of the week. Dame submitted this week. It was so good, I didn't even search for anything else. That and current events. I'm Pete the planner. This is the Pete the planner show. All right, we can turn this thing right around and get Kristen to her meeting. Are you good with that, Kristen?
40:46
Kristen Ahlenius
Yes.
40:48
Damian Dunn
I read none of the copy that came along with that, so read at your own risk.
40:53
Peter Dunn
Okay, well, you think there's going to be curse words or what are we doing?
40:56
Damian Dunn
No, I'm just saying it may suck. I don't know.
40:58
Peter Dunn
Okay. Well, so do I. In three, two, one. This week's biggest waste of money of the week right here on the pizza planner show is the Balenciaga trash bag. That's right. Balenciaga has never been shy to push boundaries, but the edgy luxury brand may have taken it to new extremes with its trash bag. Dubbed the trash pouch, the drawstring calf skin bag officially hit stores as part of Balenciaga's fall collection after it first turned heads on the runway at Paris Fashion Week in March. The launch of the bag, which comes in typical garbage bag colors like black and white as well as blue and yellow, is drawing newfound scorn on the Internet, where users are again scoffing at the Ostentatious product. Dame that was actually pretty good copy.
41:51
Damian Dunn
Yeah.
41:52
Peter Dunn
First of all, I just want to say I'm going to ask you what you think it costs. Dame knows. And number two, I don't like that I can so seamlessly pronounce Balenciaga. I don't really care about Balenciaga, but it is one of the easier brands to pronounce as it relates to brands I don't care about.
42:11
Damian Dunn
Whatever makes you sleep well at night, usually whiskey.
42:14
Peter Dunn
Kristen, what does this trash bag cost?
42:19
Kristen Ahlenius
I am not as in the know on the luxury brands as you, Pete.
42:24
Peter Dunn
Wait, no, we're not doing that's.
42:28
Kristen Ahlenius
What you just said.
42:32
Damian Dunn
Okay, that's aggressive.
42:34
Peter Dunn
Wow. That is aggressive. Kristen, I feel fondly about you, but that's a horrible guess.
42:41
Kristen Ahlenius
I don't know.
42:48
Peter Dunn
$1,790 for a luxury trash bag? Dame speaking of trash, what's in the news this week?
42:55
Damian Dunn
Samsung unveiled the latest models of two of the world's costliest phones the Galaxy Z Fold Four and the more compact Galaxy Z Flip Four, both coming to the US. Later this month. More guessing games. More guessing games, anyone?
43:09
Kristen Ahlenius
No?
43:10
Peter Dunn
How much does the phone cost?
43:12
Damian Dunn
The Z Fold Four will retail for about $1,800 and the Z Flip for around 1000. It's a bet. On the continuing resilience of the phone industry's upper class. First half smartphone shipments were down 8% from a year earlier, but declines were steepest at the low end. Shipments of, quote, ultra premium phones, priced at $900 or more, were up by more than 20%. Pete, you going to rock an $1800 phone anytime soon?
43:43
Peter Dunn
Unless it is also a hoverboard, the answer is no. That seems like a lot. Now, I got to be honest. I have no idea what my iPhone costs, and I'm not proud of that. But I don't know.
43:57
Kristen Ahlenius
Don't they know we're in a recession?
43:59
Peter Dunn
Yeah, it seems like poor timing. At some point, you got to be like, you know what? Let's not do that project.
44:04
Damian Dunn
It doesn't matter. They just said the shipments of ultra premium phones were up more than 20%.
44:10
Kristen Ahlenius
From what, though?
44:12
Damian Dunn
Was it the prior year?
44:16
Peter Dunn
I just have to say I don't like the term ultra premium. It makes me want to not sit in an exclusive area of a club on white pleather couches drinking Fiji water and overpriced belvedere vodka. That's what it makes me feel.
44:33
Damian Dunn
Isn't that essentially what airport lounges are? Or ultra premium?
44:38
Peter Dunn
They're not ultra premium. Okay, so I was in the airport lounge in Minneapolis on Sunday morning, which is a great place to be, dude, there was so many people in it. I left it so I could feel comfortable, safe, and was it was the dumbest thing I think I'd ever been a part of. I was like, not that I want to feel exclusive. I just want privacy, and I want quiet. I went in there. It was like Grand Central Station. And so I went and sat in the food court by myself with no one around.
45:12
Damian Dunn
Go ahead.
45:13
Kristen Ahlenius
I always go sit at not my gate to, and then when they call my group, I wait another, like, ten minutes, because I don't need to stand in the cattle chute.
45:23
Peter Dunn
I have to be the first person.
45:25
Kristen Ahlenius
On the plane so that you can watch everybody else struggle with their luggage or what.
45:32
Peter Dunn
I don't know why I'm the way I am, but if I'm not the first on the plane, or at least the first in my group, I have a panic attack.
45:43
Damian Dunn
No, it makes sense, because first class often boards first, and so Pete just is right there waiting. He's got whoever's carrying his bags for him, and they make their way down the jetway onto the plane.
45:56
Peter Dunn
Frequent flyer doesn't mean I spend a lot on specific flights. It means that I get upgraded to ultra premium situation. James, what else is in the news this week?
46:08
Damian Dunn
Ad Impact, a company based just outside of Washington, projects political ad spending during the current two year election cycle will more than double as compared with the 2018 midterms and even exceed spending in 2020 when the White House was in play. Total spending is on pace to reach close to $9.7 billion, compared with about 4 billion in the 2018 cycle and 9 billion in the 2020 cycle. Quote, an increasingly polarized electorate and easily accessible online fundraising tools have been major factors propelling this surge in spending. The report says it no longer takes a presidential ticket at the top of the ballot to push a cycle near $10 billion. Pete, have I told you my idea about this?
46:51
Peter Dunn
I think you have, but reshare it, because I don't remember what I had for dinner last night.
46:54
Damian Dunn
I think there are two things that you should be able to do. One, you should be able to volunteer for a certain amount of time for some nonprofit, and you would eventually get a card with a code that you could submit to any of your online stations that have ads play on them that would immediately block them out. So you don't see any political ads whatsoever for the entire time period up to the election. Or you should be able to put a dollar amount on your tax return every year, call it $50 or something like that. That would get you another code that you could opt out of all political advertisements on TV during that same time period.
47:29
Peter Dunn
Those are both amazing and, of course, highly unrealistic. Here's my take on it. I am not a cynical person. I shouldn't say that. I don't think I'm a cynical person. Maybe I am. But what bothers me the most about this, other than just personally being annoyed at the commercials, is that with that much more money coming in, it's going to be that much easier to grift and to skim off the top for the politicians. And that grinds my gears.
48:00
Kristen Ahlenius
There's a Facebook comment. No one wants this.
48:03
Peter Dunn
Yeah, Brittany's right. Literally no one. Well, a couple people. TV stations want this. I'll tell you. Friends in advertising, at media outlets, they want this. They will make their careers on this. And I don't hate them. I mean, I don't hate them for that. I mean, I get that. That's the reality. And they take it from both sides. I don't know, Dan.
48:29
Damian Dunn
What else is mortgage applications are up for the first time since June. Remember that long time period ago when things were just looking bleak? Well, it's back. The housing market. It's back, baby. Sure, it's only a 1.2% increase after a 22 year low, but this could be a glimmer of hope that the housing market will stabilize. And the 30 year fixed mortgage rate saw its largest week over week decrease since 2022, falling 31 basis points to settle at 5.43%. Home seekers rejoice.
49:00
Peter Dunn
Yeah. Kristen, were you above or below the five point? What was the average rate there? Dave? Higher or lower than that? Kristen she's higher. Wow. Really pulled the trigger. So you are clearly more than double maybe than my 2.5% mortgage.
49:20
Kristen Ahlenius
That's so nice of you to say.
49:21
Peter Dunn
Well, no, I mean, you also have 10 million times the amount of hair that I have on your head. It seems fair.
49:32
Damian Dunn
Christian, are you going to try and pay that thing off faster than the.
49:34
Peter Dunn
That'S a good question. No, it's a 30. So you're doing the reverse inflation game there.
49:41
Kristen Ahlenius
I don't intend to pay it off early, but I don't believe in getting rid of assets as a general rule either. And I also think that what works for me, behaviorally, does not work for everyone.
49:52
Peter Dunn
So you were going to be a property queen is what you're saying.
49:55
Kristen Ahlenius
Monopoly.
49:57
Peter Dunn
Wow. When we're in her presence, I feel inadequate.
50:02
Damian Dunn
Imagine having Kristen as your landlord.
50:05
Kristen Ahlenius
Yeah, I'm nice.
50:06
Peter Dunn
No, she's nice and she'd get stuff done. She is one of the most reliable people I know. So you'd be like, hey, my furnace is out. She would get it done. That's what you need in a landlord.
50:15
Damian Dunn
That's true.
50:17
Peter Dunn
All right. Yeah. That's the show this week. Kristen is off to help someone with their financial life. Can you get $70,000 of student owns forgiven? That's my hope of what you can do on this call. Can you report back to us with no more details than that?
50:31
Kristen Ahlenius
I will report back, and I hope that is the report.
50:34
Peter Dunn
Send you good vibes, because good vibes are all that's in the budget. I'm Pete the Planner, and this is the Pete the Planner. Show. All right, Kristen. See ya.
50:43
Kristen Ahlenius
See you. See ya.
50:44
Damian Dunn
Yep.
50:44
Peter Dunn
All right, dame. Another day, another dollar. I don't know what that means. How much can we trust her based on an $11 Subway sandwich?
50:57
Damian Dunn
There has to be something more there, right?
50:59
Peter Dunn
Okay, I agree. So first of all, I think the bacon is an issue, but I have another point that I didn't want to bring up. You can get a footlong pro, which is double the protein for 1099, and I think she may have gone with the pro.
51:14
Damian Dunn
Think so. Do they have just a regular chicken Bacon ranch or whatever?
51:19
Peter Dunn
Let's look up the chicken bacon ranch here. I mean, this is the stuff that people want. This is why our show consistently doesn't win awards. Okay. The chicken bacon ranch footlong is 1199.
51:36
Damian Dunn
So she had a coupon.
51:37
Peter Dunn
Yeah. I mean, she's a bargain hunter. One of my biggest pet peeves of all time were the extreme couponer movement back in the day, where people would be like, I got 39,000 rolls of TP. Now, given what we've just all been through, it's smart, but people are like, I got free yogurt. It's. Like what? Who wants free yogurt? I don't trust free yogurt.
52:02
Damian Dunn
Really?
52:03
Peter Dunn
I don't know what I'm saying. I'm tired. I got to go. I got a meeting. Sorry. Jeremiah. That's the best joke of the show. Dame, maseltov. Everyone else, stay getting money.
